Dodgers Nation.com

The Dodgers are about to embark on a very difficult offseason, in which they must deal with multiple hearings of arbitration. Let’s take a look at what we have coming up in the next couple of months:

Catcher:
Incumbent: Russell Martin
Last Year’s Contract: Made $3.9 million in 2009
Contract Status: Arbitration eligible for 2010-12
Stats: .250 AVG, 7 HR, 53 RBI, .352 OBP, .680 OPS.

Analysis: Russell Martin is a rather confusing case to fiddle with. Three  years ago, when he came up to the Major Leagues he was tearing up the competition. The following two years seemed to justify Martin’s success. However, this year, he just hit a nosedive. Let’s take a look at his numbers:

• 2006: 121 G, 415 AB, .282 BA, 10 HR, 65 RBI, .355 OBP, .791 SLG
• 2007: 151 G, 540 AB, .293 BA, 19 HR, 87 RBI, .374 OBP, .843 SLG
• 2008: 155 G, 553 AB, .280 BA, 13 HR, 69 RBI, .385 OBP, .781 SLG
• 2009: 143 G, 505 AB, .250 BA, 7 HR, 53 RBI, .352 OBP, .681 SLG

Clearly something is wrong here. After the 2007 season you can see that Russell’s slugging percentage takes a nosedive. On the contrary though, his fielding percentage was the best of his career in 2009, at .994 percent.

The good news with Martin is that he will be turning 27 in February. Typically, at age 27 a player enjoys his best success (see Andre Ethier’s 2009 season).

Other candidates: Bengie Molina, Yorvit Torrealba, Jason Kendall, Lucas May

I took the four most plausible candidates to replace Martin and was not impressed.

1. Molina’s average is just higher than Martin’s (.265). However he doesn’t get on base nearly as much (.285 OBP).
2. Torrealba might seem like a good option, and he is definitely fighting his case to score a good pay day. However, his inflated average comes in only 64 games. He doesn’t play many games (his high was in 2007 with 113 games played, where he averaged .255).
3. Kendall might be the most reliable option behind the plate, but only in terms of defense. Offensively, he is no longer the threat he used to be.
4. May is 25 years old, and really is the only Dodgers Catching prospect worth watching, for now. Last season at AA Chattanooga, he posted numbers of .306 AVG, 6 HR, 32 RBI, .390 OBP, .858 SLG. That’s in half a season.

Final Look: The word on all three of these players is that they will get paid by some club, who is desperate to find a starting catcher, especially Molina. The truth of the matter is that as poorly as Russell Martin played in the 2009 campaign, it can only get better, and he will be much cheaper to control versus any other outside option.

Should the club decide to non-tender Martin, and call up Lucas May, they may be looking at a catcher who could turn into what Martin was a few years ago. Not a bad option, but it is definitely a gamble.

Personally, I say offer arbitration to Martin. He is eligible for two more seasons. If Martin performs, you hang on to him. If he doesn’t, and a good deal comes up for an important player (ie. Roy Halladay), deal him.

Prediction: Russell Martin signs for 1-yr/$3.5 million, avoiding arbitration.