2012: On the Mound
Ted Lilly
While I remain unsure of Billingsley’s success this season, one guy I expect to rebound nicely is Lilly – and the reasons lie in his stats.
First of all, Lilly posted a respectable 3.97 ERA last season, but the number that intrigues me the most is his WHIP. In 2011, Lilly allowed just 1.16 walks and hits per inning pitched, tying him for 22nd in MLB.
As reference, that placed him just .02 behind guys like David Price, Ricky Romero and Tim Hudson and ahead of guys like C.J. Wilson (by .03), Tim Lincecum (.05), Hiroki Kuroda (.05), Felix Hernandez (.06) and C.C. Sabathia (.07).
To take those numbers even further, consider the improvement Lilly showed in the second half of 2011. While he posted an ERA of 4.79 before the All-Star break as batters hit .278 against him, those numbers dropped to 2.94 and .183 respectively after the break. During the same time period, the number of home runs he allowed dropped from 19 to just nine and his strikeout rate increased from 6.5 K/9 to 8.5 K/9.
With all this in mind, I expect Lilly’s ERA to come back down to 3.50 or lower this season, and if Billingsley is able to do the same, the Dodgers will have a strong 1-2-3 punch in their rotation.
Aaron Harang
Here’s where things get interesting.
For the first time since 2007, Harang posted an ERA under 4.00 last year (3.64). Unlike Lilly, whose BABIP (batting average on balls in play) indicated that he was unlucky last year, Harang’s indicated the exact opposite.
In 2009 and 2010, opponents batted .335 and .342 on balls put into play respectively, but last year that number miraculously dropped to .305.
While many will point to his ERA as a sign that he still has something left in the tank, we also have to remember that the 33-year-old pitched in the friendly confines of Petco Park last season.
Luckily the team will not rely on Harang to make or break their season. He’ll be an average bottom-of-the-rotation starter whose ERA will hover between 4.10-4.30.
Chris Capuano
For all of the Dodgers fans nauseous at the prospect of their no. 4 starter posting an ERA of 4.30 this year, brace yourselves for the stats behind Capuano.
Coming off a season in which he posted an ERA of 4.55 with the Mets, the 33-year-old Capuano has made only 40 major league starts since 2007.
Not much else to say here except that Don Mattingly and Rick Honeycutt are simply hoping that Capuano can be a placeholder in the fifth spot to eat up innings while some of the younger arms get major league ready.
While many of you are wondering – how can the Dodgers have an above-average rotation with guys like Harang and Capuano taking the mound every five days? The answer lies in some of the young arms that appear to make the jump this season.
Next Page: The replacements waiting for their shot
