2021 Dodgers Season Preview: Starting Pitching Outlook, Kershaw, Bauer, Buehler & More

I waited to do this article until the Trevor Bauer free agency was resolved. In my mind, it was very doubtful that he would come to the Dodgers but I waited just to be safe. Now that Bauer has signed with LA, the starting pitching outlook goes from very good to great. There were very few difference-makers available via trade or free agency and Andrew Friedman got the biggest one.

This article will look at the available starting pitching the Dodgers have at their disposal and how they could be used in the regular season and the postseason.

As it stands, the Dodgers plan on keeping Julio Urías in the rotation. That would bump out Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May — for now.

So the projected rotation is Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Trevor Bauer, David Price, and Julio Urías on Feb. 6.

— Jorge Castillo (@jorgecastillo) February 7, 2021

Top 5 Starters

• Clayton Kershaw
• Walker Buehler
• Trevor Bauer
• David Price
• Julio Urias

Trevor Bauer, Wicked Breaking Balls from 2020. ?? pic.twitter.com/NXNMYWi2Kn

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) February 6, 2021

Major League Depth

• Dustin May
• Tony Gonsolin

https://twitter.com/DMAC_LA/status/1290821915402072064?s=20

Minor League Depth

• Jimmy Nelson
• Josiah Gray
• Ryan Pepiot
• Mitchell White
• Gerardo Carrillo
• Andre Jackson
• Edwin Uceta
• Bobby Miller

Josiah Gray, Overpowering Fastball (with Sound ?). pic.twitter.com/cmxZqro9Vy

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 11, 2020

Overall Depth

It’s clear that the Dodgers have more Major League-ready starters than the traditional front five. Let’s remember, it was just last year when the club entered the spring training 1.0 with similar depth but lost David Price (opted out) and Alex Wood (injury) in the rotation. Clayton Kershaw also missed his opening day start with a back injury and Walker Buehler wasn’t quite ready for the start of the season, had blisters, and ended up averaging less than five innings per start.

In fact, no Dodgers’ starter averaged even six innings per start in 2020.

For the regular season, the Dodgers will need to cover about 1500 innings, If the starters average around 5 innings per start (not counting openers), that eats up a little more than 800 innings. That gives each starter 160 innings for the season, which seems reasonable (particularly after the shortened season). However, with the Dodgers having seven legitimate Major League starters, they should find ways for the extra two to take up some of the innings load.

Using All Seven Starters

One of the big advantages of signing Trevor Bauer is that he usually stays pretty healthy and should be counted on for a solid six innings in every start. If he makes 30 starts that covers 180 innings. Clayton Kershaw does have periodic injuries so based on the last three seasons he should be counted on for around 25 starts with an average of 6 innings per start — about 150 innings. Walker Buehler should have similar numbers but has mentioned his goal of reaching the 200 inning plateau in the past. With David Price, I would count on no more than 125 innings. And Julio Urias has never started a full season so I wouldn’t count on him for much more than 125 innings as well.

For those top five starters, that gives the ballclub 730 innings, which understandably is a conservative estimate.

There is no reason that Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin should not be good for at least 100 innings each. The key is to find ways to get them some starts or lengthy appearances.

Using All Seven as “Starters”

The MLB/PA deal is for the 2021 season and will include 7-inning Doubleheaders and the modified extra inning rules with runner starting on 2b. There is no universal DH that is currently part of the agreement.

— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) February 9, 2021

Given that the pandemic could cause games to be postponed and made up later as part of doubleheaders, there is a definite need for the extra starters. Another solution for getting May and Gonsolin some innings while also being smart about limiting innings for some other pitchers is to double them up. Plan for someone like Price to only for 4 or 5 and then follow with May for the rest of the game. Buehler seems to need to work into the season so pair him up with Gonsolin for the first two-to-three starts.

I want to see the Dodgers find a way to keep all seven of those arms on the Major League roster and keep them stretched out as starters. Given that May and Gonsolin are not penciled into the rotation going into spring training, the Dodgers should find a way to use those guys in multiple inning roles as much as possible. Another solution could be to use them as two-to-three inning openers.

Some say that it would not hurt Dustin May to work on adding to his pitch mix. That could be done in AAA for a few starts, which is not the worst idea. With May, I think there is another level for him to attain and he has the talent to get there. Reminder, he’s only 23.

An idea that I like a lot is a six-man rotation. That way they can ease into the season. However, it seems the Dodgers are not looking to do that. I am hopeful they reconsider as spring training progresses.

The Postseason

Everything changes in the postseason as clubs usually rely on only four starters. Last year they utilized openers quite a bit, but if Kershaw, Buehler, Bauer, and Price are all healthy and productive then that frees up Urias, May, and Gonsolin for the bullpen. With the type of stuff those three have, Dave Roberts can use them in high-level situations to get the toughest of outs. We all saw how great Julio was in relief last October. He appeared in relief three times (once in the second inning) and he totally shut the opponents down. He got two wins in the NLDS and NLCS clinchers and a save in the World Series clincher.

With all the experience those three have gathered in the postseason they turn the bullpen into a huge weapon.

2021 Outlook

With just the seven starters we’ve spoken about, it is very possible the Dodgers could get 950-1000 innings just from these pitchers. Having seven legitimate starting pitchers on the roster is a luxury in most seasons. In 2021 it will be a necessity as pitchers weren’t able to stretch out in 2020. I remain hopeful that the club holds on to all seven of their starters because pitching depth is paramount in a 162 season. But notably, some fans have suggest a David Price trade to potentially help pay for a Justin Turner contract.

I believe it is possible the Dodgers can re-sign JT, not do a salary dump, and stay under the $250M number. It sounds like there are deferrals in TB’s contract which could lower the AAV from 34M to less. Think Mookie’s contract. 30M became 25.6M because of deferrals.

— Tim Rogers 2080 ??subscriber: (@TimRogers2080) February 8, 2021

Again, the Dodgers should keep David Price. Yes, the team has a lot of depth, but 2021 brings so many unknowns. With the seven starting pitching candidates and some great minor league depth, the Dodgers have the most complete and best starting pitching in baseball.

Some Final Thoughts

How many times have you seen a pitching staff where the reigning Cy Young Award winner might be slotted in the number three slot? How many teams would consider Julio Urias to be either their number one or two starter? On any other MLB team, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin would be in the starting rotation. The surprise addition of Trevor Bauer has turned the starting rotation into the strongest part of the team. If the rotation stays at the top of its game, don’t be surprised to see the Dodgers celebrating again in 2021.

If that sort of thing is allowed by then.

NEXT: Could Trevor Bauer Be the Next Max Scherzer?