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Dodgers: A Look At the Projections for JD Martinez in 2023

Baseball isn’t played on paper, but in the offseason, the “on-paper” projections are all we have. This is the fifth installment in our series looking at the projections for key members of the 2023 Dodgers. We’ve done Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith; now it’s time to take a look at new Dodger J.D. Martinez.

Here are the expected stat lines for Martinez from three projection systems: RotoChamps, Steamer, and Marcels (in the format of AVG/OBP/SLG HR RBI R).



RotoChamps: .275/.344/.473 21 78 81

Steamer: .251/.317/.434 21 74 67

Marcels: .262/.327/.448 18 67 69

Marcels and Steamer both seem to think Martinez’s down year in 2022 was the start of a steep decline rather than an anomaly. His OPS last year was .790, and those two have him at .776 and .751, respectively.

Martinez has been an excellent hitter since he changed his swing before the 2014 season, and even in last year’s down year, his OPS+ was 117. The Dodgers certainly signed him hoping for more than a 117 OPS+, something closer to the 152 he posted from 2014-19 or even the 128 he had in 2021.

RotoChamps actually projects Martinez to be very similar in 2023 to what he was in 2022 except with a few more homers, which is reasonable. But both Marcels and Steamer have his batting average and OBP taking a steep dive even from their decreased 2022 levels.

Martinez is being reunited with Robert Van Scoyoc, the coach who helped turn him into a superstar back in 2013-14, and Mookie Betts, his close friend from their time in Boston. Will that be enough to turn around the “decline” or whatever 2022 was?

Honestly, it’s hard to tell. All we can do is guess at this point, but LA obviously saw something in Martinez that made them think he could turn it around, and they’re generally pretty good at their jobs. I can’t confidently say the projections are wrong, but there’s plenty of reason to hope they are.

We’ve been doing a series of 2022 reviews for different Dodgers players in which we include highlight videos; since Martinez wasn’t a Dodger last year, we’ll use this excuse to share some JD highlights from last year.

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Jeff Snider

Jeff was born into a Dodgers family in Southern California and is now raising a Dodgers family of his own in Utah. He's been blogging about baseball and the Dodgers 2004 and doing it professionally since 2015. Favorite Player: Clayton Kershaw Favorite Moment: Kirk Gibson's homer will always have a place, but Kershaw homer on Opening Day 2013 might be the winner.

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3 Comments

  1. The same as JT’s projections pretty much. I’m still shaking my head over this move and I’m a big time fan of Friedman.

  2. All wrong. He’ll hit 250 maybe 10 hrs and maybe 50 rbis he’s over the hill playing in the hardest place to hit hrs no more small ballpark like fenway’s green monster that’s only 280 feet away from home plate plus national league has better pitching. He’s done

  3. If this is true. JD likely has a lot of strong hits, with a man on first. If this man is fast, and outfield playing deep, man can possibly score or move to 3B. Meanwhile, JD slow. He gets to first , but advances to second on the play for the lead runner, or holds at 1B. He is a hitter! Especially if bat 2 slot above FF or 3 slot after FF.

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