Dodgers Predicted To Top 100 Wins by PECOTA Projection System
Right now, things are on the up and up for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Of course when you add a player like Mookie Betts to a team that already had oddsmakers setting them at 98.5 wins, that tends to happen.
Now with the cheating scandal behind them, and MLB insiders far and wide predicting their floor at 100 wins; another projection system sees the Dodgers in a favorable light.
Annual Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projections:#Dodgers win 103 games; no other NL team wins more than 88; no other NL West team even finishes .500.#Angels win 87 games, and an AL wild-card spot.https://t.co/GD5NA7UKEH
— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) February 11, 2020
Bill Shaikin brings our attention to PECOTA’s 2020 standings projections. Within this projection system, the Dodgers are expected to win a total of 103 games. Equally important, no other NL team wins more than 88 games. Furthermore, no other NL west team finishes .500 aside from Los Angeles.
If MLB operates by PECOTA’s standards, the big dog will eat in 2020. The system has the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks tied for second in the NL West with equal 79-83 records.
You can see the entire PECOTA system standings here, which also sees the Los Angeles Angels finishing at 87 wins and sneaking out a Wildcard berth.
While I would bet against the rest of the NL west being that poor – namely San Diego – it’s clear that the Dodgers have moved the needle on their expected win total. Deductive reasoning should tell us that much, as Betts has been a player whom in the past added almost 10 wins in WAR to a Boston team in 2018 when he won the AL MVP award.
Still, the Dodgers are not without their flaws. Everyone knows they can be the regular season champs – just look at 2019 – but the real measuring stick will come once the calendar flips to October.
Obviously it’s nice to know you can basically write them in there, and with this trade now official I would tend to agree that the Dodgers will be in the playoffs barring something strange. There are few teams in baseball that know sitting here today, that the regular season serves as their dress rehearsal. Right now, baseball in Los Angeles is living a charmed life as I like to say.
These predictions are always way low so I expect 110 wins and other teams to be in the 90’s
I think the DBags and Pads would and should take some exception to this kind of crazy talk.
I had the Dodgers at 96 – 102 wins before the Angels trade fell through. Now I have them at 99 – 105. Hopefully we just keep Pederson and Stripling. If they are traded we should at least get something real in return.
I did as well, maybe 93-95 or so. I think they win 99 to 103 now. Great post.