Team News: Dodgers Will Win 99 Games Per PECOTA
The baseball pre-season is all about predictions. Who will be the best and worst teams? Who will improve the most? Are any teams going to regress? Well, PECOTA (per Baseball Prospectus) updated their predictions for team records in 2018. And it looks like the Dodgers are not expected to regress much at all. After winning an MLB best 104 games in 2017, the Dodgers are predicted to win 99 games in 2018. PECOTA predicts them to win the NL West handily by 12 games over the Arizona Diamondbacks. And those 99 wins will be the same as the Astros predicted win total.
Happy PECOTA Day! If you're ready to dive into this year's projections, click here to get started: https://t.co/sHrogvDRqt
— Baseball Prospectus (@baseballpro) February 7, 2018
Certainly, this should not come as a surprise to anyone. The Dodgers have been fortunate in their losses, with free agency departures of set-up man Brandon Morrow (though a good one to boot), and a rental pitcher in Yu Darvish (again a good rental at that). Replacing Darvish shouldn’t prove to be too difficult of a task. Though it would be great to have him back in the rotation, the Dodgers have the depth and talent to replace him. It was tough to lose Morrow to the Cubs, but relief pitching is so volatile and ultimately easily replaceable. So there clearly isn’t much concern over seeing him leave. Other departures like Adrian Gonzalez or Curtis Granderson do not move the needle backwards as they contributed very little last year.
With most of the 2017 roster returning and the continual stream of young talent from the farm system, it is easy to see why PECOTA still has the Dodgers as the best team in the Majors. Though predictions do not always pan out, it’s still comforting seeing they favor our Boys in Blue. And with that in mind maybe, just maybe, they can return to the Fall Classic bring a title back to Los Angeles.
If The Dodgers can pick up a 3rd starter .. they’ll be in good shape. We’ll wait for the trade deadline to see where we stand..
3rd? Kershaw Hill and Woods are 1,2,3 now with Meada running out the 4th day. If we get a good number 4 then things should go well even with Hill having sketchy health issues.
That was exactly my point. The #3 is soooo much more important than #4 plus I think Maeda will be used as a mid reliever when all is said.. and done.. Btw.. Wouldn’t hurt to have an extra ‘bat’ around trade deadline also.. Maybe some of those ‘low rent’ pick ups.. Baez.. Grandal + a prospect bundled could do the trick.. Ownership won’t let Friedman and Zaidi go over the luxury tax limit for damn sure.. Some nifty trading by Friedman could just about do it.. A lot depends on the Kemp situation. Go Dodgers !!
While acquiring another proven MLB starter would be nice, we already have a starting 5 that most of the rest of the MLB would envy. Hyun-Jin Ryu may not be a sexy #5, but he put up solid numbers. And with supporting starters like Brock Stewart, Ross Stripling, Walker Buehler, etc, all showing to be very capable, I am not worried at all – and neither are any projections for the Dodgers regarding their pitching staff. PECOTA, ZIPS, Steamer, and others all have the Dodgers as either the best projected, or top 3 projected, rotation in baseball per bWAR and fWAR.