The Los Angeles Dodgers have been among the leading contenders in the Tarik Skubal sweepstakes, with a combination of prospects that can match any offer around the league; however, his arbitration win throws a new wrench into the matter.
Skubal, the ace for the Detroit Tigers and a two-time Cy Young award winner, will be making $32 million next season, his final season of team control before hitting the open market.
With his new deal, Skubal’s salary is finally set for the coming season, and the Tigers can make their final financial calculations and see what their salary sheet looks like.
Detroit recently inked high-quality starter Framber Valdez to a three-year, $115 million deal, forming a powerful one-two punch with Skubal, though after the arbitration, the Tigers’ payroll is set to skyrocket.
According to Sportico, their payroll is set to reach $210 million in 2026, up from $145 million in the 2025 season.
The team’s costs are increasing, while their local TV revenue has taken a hit after they cut their regional TV deal. They were set to make more than $50 million, but it looks like it will be cut by 25-50%.
With the team spending a good deal of money, it is hard to see them trading Skubal heading into the season, but instead, he will be on the team and leading them.
The Dodgers, boasting the best rotation in baseball, did not need Skubal, but he would be another quality pitcher that the team can lean on if the bullpen struggles again or injuries arise.
Since the Dodgers are facing a massive luxury tax hit of 110% on any player added this season, Skubal would cost upwards of $60 million to the team, while also potentially adding more costs with a contract extension as well.
Additionally, a deal for an ace of that caliber would take a massive haul of prospects, draining the Dodgers of resources for another move.
The Dodgers can potentially pivot away from Skubal now, targeting other needs that may arise ahead of the trade deadline, while keeping the phone nearby in case he becomes available.
Expectations for the Tigers will be high as an American League contender, but even though everything is settled with Detroit and looks good, there is still a realistic path for them to trade Skubal.
What happens next with Tarik Skubal?
The best hope for the Dodgers or any other team of landing Skubal is if the Tigers get off to a slow start. If Detroit is not headed in the right direction after the investment in the current roster, they may decide to finally move on from Skubal and rebuild.
Los Angeles will be more than capable of targeting Skubal in that case, and his trade value will drop slightly from what it was during the offseason, since he will not be offering a full season.
