Los Angeles Dodgers free agent starting pitcher Tarik Skubal is the best free agent on the market this offseason, with some experts believing he could receive a deal in excess of $400 million.
According to ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez, though, the two-time Cy Young-winning left-hander may command a lower price than that, which is good news for the Dodgers, who will definitely be in the race to maintain him.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto currently holds the largest pitcher contract by total value in MLB history at $325 million, which may have been possible for Skubal a couple of years ago, but Gonzalez believes Skubal is being held back by a few factors.
“But he’s also 30 years old, at a time when pitchers break down and teams are only willing to dole out massive contracts to players at earlier ages, with a recent elbow surgery to boot,” Gonzalez wrote. “Skubal clearly won’t get the 12-year deal that allowed Yamamoto’s guarantee to stretch so high, and some executives have a hard time believing he’ll get 10. Said one: ‘The price will be huge, but I don’t think he’s touching 400.'”
Why is This Good News for the Dodgers?
The Dodgers aren’t any strangers to handing out big, long contracts, but Katie Woo of The Athletic doesn’t see them doing the same with a 10-year, $400 million deal with Skubal.
‘I can’t see [Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman] stomaching a 10-year, $400 million contract if it gets up that high,” Woo said on 97.1 The Fan.
“The only way I see the Dodgers really being fierce competitors for Skubal is if Skubal is willing to take a deal similar to the structure and the concept like Kyle Tucker.
“Obviously, the money and the monetary values are going to be different, but if you can get a shorter-term, three-to-four-year contract with opt-outs and a super high AAV, that’s, I think, the only way that we can see the Dodgers being real major players for Skubal.”
The Dodgers signed Tucker to a four-year, $240 million deal last offseason, and his $60 million annual average value is second on the team only to Shohei Ohtani. The Dodgers are more than capable of handing out a deal of that size, and could very well do so if they see Skubal in their long-term plans.
Does Tarik Skubal Deserve a Big Deal?
Skubal, 30, is without a doubt one of MLB’s best pitchers, but entering the latter half of his MLB career, it’s understandable that teams would offer him less than they would have a few years ago.
The southpaw will enter his eighth MLB season next year, fresh off of an elbow surgery in 2026 to remove loose bodies from his elbow. He had a 2.72 ERA across 26 starts with the Dodgers and the Detroit Tigers, striking out 186 batters in 158.2 innings pitched.
Those numbers aren’t quite at the same level as his unbelievable 2024 and 2025 seasons, but they’re also nothing to scoff at.
The better part of Skubal’s season came with the Dodgers, as he had a 2.61 ERA through 10 starts to close the year, striking out 70 batters in 62 innings. He also had a good postseason, allowing just three runs through 11 innings for a 2.45 ERA.
Skubal’s performances with the Dodgers proved he can be a functioning piece in the Dodgers’ puzzle, and bringing him back on a deal similar to Tucker’s would make a statement to the rest of the league following a disappointing end to the 2026 season.
