Dodgers Pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s Fastball is Fooling No One
When the Los Angeles Dodgers signed Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a 12-year, $325 million contract in December, jaws dropped around the world. It was a record-setting deal for someone who had never thrown a pitch in Major League Baseball.
The 25-year-old right-hander impressed during spring training with his unique training regimen and insane breaking balls but his major league debut in South Korea fell short of expectations. He was shelled for five runs and chased after one inning in the Dodgers’ loss to the San Diego Padres.
Since then, while Yamamoto has been better, he has not surprised anyone with his fastball. His four-seamer has been crushed at a barrel rate of 25% and a .710 slugging percentage.
The question is: Why?
According to Jay Jaffe of FanGraphs, too many of Yamamoto’s four-seamers are going right down the middle. Several factors help explain this, one being the physical baseball itself. On the SNY broadcast, analyst Ron Darling mentioned that Yamamoto might be having trouble adjusting to the different ball. Nippon Professional Baseball uses a ball with lower seams and is slightly tackier, which makes it easier to grip than MLB balls.
Meanwhile, Yamamoto’s secondary pitches have been incredible. He is striking out batters at a rate of 32.3 percent against a 5.4 percent walk rate, suggesting his command is exactly what the Dodgers were betting on in December. Here is a breakdown of his Statcast numbers by pitch:
Yoshinobu Yamamoto by Pitch Type
| Pitch | % | BA | xBA | SLG | xSLG | wOBA | xwOBA | Whiff% | EV | LA | HH% | Barrel% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam | 37.0 | .355 | .371 | .710 | .665 | .454 | .486 | 20.9 | 96.5 | 14.9 | 67.9 | 25.0 |
| Non-4-Seam | 63.0 | .167 | .182 | .278 | .257 | .220 | .217 | 39.3 | 84.3 | 5.5 | 41.4 | 6.9 |
| Curve | 28.6 | .208 | .212 | .375 | .304 | .254 | .221 | 37.2 | 81.9 | 5.2 | 46.2 | 7.7 |
| Splitter | 27.3 | .115 | .163 | .192 | .226 | .192 | .227 | 42.9 | 86.2 | 5.3 | 38.5 | 7.7 |
| Cutter | 6.8 | .250 | .122 | .250 | .175 | .225 | .124 | 33.3 | 87.1 | 8.0 | 33.3 | 0.0 |
Darling suggested it might take Yamamoto up to 12 starts for him to completely adjust to MLB, but the stats say he has adjusted just fine with his secondary pitches. He ranks fifth in the league with his 26.9 percent strikeout-to-walk differential.
So far this season, Yamamoto has had to rely on his fastball when his secondary pitches don’t result in strikes early in the count. Therefore, batters are sitting on his fastball, because they are ahead in the count and forcing him to throw the four-seamer for a strike. If he can figure out a way to get ahead in the count with his cutter and curve, he doesn’t have to throw the fastball as much and can get the strikeout with his nasty splitter.
Yamamoto’s splits suggest he is the worst in the first inning (seven earned runs, eight hits, 12.60 ERA). However, this issue could be limited to one opponent. Two of his first six starts have come against the Padres; in the other four he hasn’t allowed a first-inning run.
All signs suggest that Yamamoto needs to do whatever he can to get ahead early with his secondary pitches to be dominant in the league, instead of depending on his fastball to even the count because that is what batters are waiting for.
Entering Thursday’s start against the Washington Nationals, Yamamoto has a 1-1 record in five starts with a 4.50 ERA.
Photo Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
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