Los Angeles Dodgers free agent Tarik Skubal’s willingness to accept a high average annual value deal in the short term may determine whether he returns to the team to start 2027.
The layout of Tarik Skubal’s free agent market
Skubal is at his apex right now; not even 30 years old and pitching at such an elite level, he has a strong claim to being the best pitcher on the planet.
Game-changing players rarely hit free agency, and in an especially weak class, all eyes are on Skubal and how much money he gets.
Despite being such a great player, uncertainty around the upcoming CBA talks makes Skubal’s expected range very wide.
It could be between $300 million and $500 million, over four to 10 years.
The ideal Skubal offer for the Dodgers
For the Dodgers, as The Athletic’s Katie Woo has predicted and their history indicates, a short-term deal is always the preference for president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman.
Long-term commitments have been rare for Friedman, going only to Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Shohei Ohtani.
Otherwise, four-year deals or shorter at a high salary have been the norm.
According to Buster Olney of ESPN, an agent told him that they think the Dodgers will come to an agreement similar to Kyle Tucker, who inked a four-year, $240 million deal.
“I had one agent predict to me that they are gonna kind of do. … It’s going to be more Kyle Tucker-type structure, like six times 60, which would set a record by far,” Olney said on his podcast for ESPN, Baseball Tonight.
What other options could Skubal have?
The Mets aren’t shy about going very long on contracts. They signed Juan Soto to a 15-year deal, and while Skubal is a pitcher and more prone to injuries or declines, a 9- or 10-year deal is possible.
Compared to the proposed $360 million over six years, could the Mets go up to 10 years for $450 million to sign their ace and shore up their rotation?
The Dodgers’ familiarity with Skubal could sway him if the money is tantalizing enough or close enough.
Either way, the Dodgers will need to get bold in their approach, and maybe even uncomfortable.
