Why Tarik Skubal’s Free Agency Could Mirror Juan Soto’s Massive Blockbuster

Ace Tarik Skubal is the most sought-after free agent in baseball right now, and while he only spent a few months with the Los Angeles Dodgers, LA remains a favorite to re-sign him.

But what if another big-spending National League team were to move in on Skubal? That’s precisely the prediction some analysts recently made, and Dodgers fans probably won’t like what they hear.

Who could sign Tarik Skubal?

On the “Baseball Tonight Podcast,” Buster Olney was joined by Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers and Jorge Castillo, and Castillo made the case that Skubal could end up as a New York Met.

Castillo called the Mets “the favorites” to get the lefty, and he compared it to their signing of Juan Soto a few years ago.

“If Steve Cohen wants Skubal, he will sign Skubal,” Castillo said. “Skubal is another Scott Boras client, just like Juan Soto. The Yankees went up to 16 years, $760 million, and the Mets went a little higher over 15 years. And I think that will happen in this situation.”

MLB: NLCS-Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers
Oct 11, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Tarik Skubal (29) pitches against the Milwaukee Brewers in game one of the NLCS for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-Imagn Images Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect (Reuters)

Castillo noted that it’s possible Skubal chooses to take a little less money to play for another organization.

After all, the Mets finished last in their division this year, while the Dodgers won the NL West and made it to the NLCS.

That kind of frustrating results, especially for a team with a huge payroll like the Mets, can lead to more aggression in the offseason.

“This is the second most expensive payroll in baseball the last couple years, and they have not reached the postseason. They need to reach the postseason,” he explained.

Do the Dodgers still stand a chance of keeping Tarik Skubal?

Fortunately for Dodgers fans, this isn’t purely a financial decision, as detailed by Gonzalez.

“I do believe that all things being equal, Tarik Skubal would go back to the Dodgers,” he explained.

Gonzalez said Skubal recently told him how much he enjoyed his time there with those coaches,” as well as the time he spent with teammates, especially fellow ace Blake Snell.

“I do think Tarik Skubal is the type of guy who values familiarity, somebody who came up in the Tigers organization and only knew that place,” Gonzalez said. “I don’t know that he wants to go through change again. But having said that, Scott Boras is his agent. He’s going to chase a record-setting contract. I don’t think there’s any doubt that he’s going to get it.”

That means it could all come down to a simple question of desire and, by extension, money: Do the Dodgers want Tarik Skubal back as badly as the Mets would want to sign him?

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