Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani walked to both of the last two NL MVP awards, but he may have some real competition this year.
The Chicago Cubs’ Pete Crow-Armstrong is the other player in the National League’s two-horse race to the biggest individual award in baseball, and ESPN’s “AXE” rating system gives the center fielder the edge. The AXE takes into account advances metrics such as WAR and WPA to determine a player’s value, and has Crow-Armstrong’s 163.3 rating beating out Ohtani’s 154.7.
What is Pete Crow-Armstrong’s Case for MVP?
“Crow-Armstrong has done everything an MVP is supposed to do,” ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle wrote. “He’s leading his team’s push for a postseason spot. He’s putting up big numbers on offense and defense. He has piled up big moments in high-profile games. He has matched Ohtani step-for-step at the plate while lapping him in the baserunning categories. Oh yeah, and PCA has also been the best defensive player in baseball.
“The biggest threat for him is probably himself, given his past penchant for going into slumps driven by iffy swing decisions. But that version of Crow-Armstrong is obsolete, and the new version grinds nearly every at-bat. Seven weeks ago, his chances still felt like an uphill battle. Now it feels as if this is Crow-Armstrong’s race to lose, even if Ohtani returns to the mound soon. But it’s not over.”
Crow-Armstrong has certainly been impressive for the Cubs this season, leading all of MLB with 8.1 bWAR on the season. His .938 OPS surpassed Ohtani after Sunday’s games, leading the NL. Additionally, he leads the NL in total bases and OPS+, and already has a 30/30 season under his belt.
His 24 fielding run value and 23 outs above average both lead MLB, and his arm value also ranks in the top 5% of MLB.
What is Shohei Ohtani’s Case for MVP?
While Doolittle’s system sees PCA as the current MVP, he made sure not to discount the heights Ohtani reached this season—both on the mound and in the batter’s box.
“Then again, this is Shohei Ohtani we’re talking about,” Doolittle wrote. “Remember how he went off when he had a 50/50 season in sight in 2024? He had a .628/.667/.1.186 tear over 10 games with six homers, 20 RBIs and 10 steals. That version of Ohtani is always lurking, even as the one we’ve seen for most of this season is really good. You know you’re historically great when what feels like a down season still makes you a top MVP contender.”
While Ohtani hasn’t been the same MVP-caliber hitter Dodger fans have watched for the last two seasons, he has still been a fantastic offensive contributor on the year. He has 30 homers and 80 RBIs, as well as a .935 OPS on the year.
In addition to his stellar bat, the Dodgers got a glimpse of Ohtani’s potential on the mound during the first half of the season. The right-hander had a 1.79 ERA through 85.2 innings pitched, striking out 95 batters.
Ohtani is still clearly in the MVP race, but will have to—at the very least—match Crow-Armstrong’s pace if he is to win his fourth consecutive MVP award.
