2012: On the Mound

As we approach the Dodgers’ 2012 season, it seems like all of the hopes and dreams in Los Angeles have been tied to the success and improvement of hitters like Andre Ethier and James Loney. Today, however, we’re going to take a look at the other side of things – the pitching staff. While the additions of Aaron Harang and Chris Capuano were underwhelming at best, there is reason to believe the Dodgers could post an above-average pitching staff this season that may keep them in divisional contention. While Ethier and Loney are the key hitters, I believe that this year’s pitching success will hinge on Chad Billingsley and Ted Lilly, along with a handful of young arms. And considering the dreadful lineups that NL West teams are putting out this year, it’s safe to say that good pitching could be a difference maker. Next Page: The Staff Leaders Clayton Kershaw Trivia question: How many pitchers in MLB have had a sub-3.00 ERA the last three years in a row? Answer: Two. Follow-up Question: How many of those two pitchers have had over 185 strikeouts in all three seasons? Answer: One. Meet Clayton Kershaw, who while joined by Philadelphia's Roy Halladay with impressive sub-3.00 ERAs, outshines him with the strikeout numbers. The model of consistency, Kershaw is coming off of one of the greatest seasons in Dodgers’ history (save Sandy Koufax), winning the pitching Triple Crown in the National League. He finished the season with a record of 21-5, an ERA of 2.28 and 248 strikeouts. For the stat guys out there – Kershaw finished second in WHIP (Walks and hits per innings pitched) at 0.98. What makes this all even more impressive is Kershaw’s durability (knock on wood), as he has started 30 or more games in each of the last three seasons. Moral of the story: Top of the rotation is taken care of. Chad Billingsley Following Kershaw throughout the season will be Chad Billingsley, who is entering his seventh season with the Dodgers. While Kershaw has been consistent, Billingsley has been anything but. In his time with the Dodgers, Billingsley has shown flashes of brilliance that earned him a 2009 All-Star Game invitation, but that success has been accompanied by the occasional shellacking as well. The 2009 season was the perfect illustration of the duality that Billingsley offers. Chad came off of the 2008 season in which he posted a 16-10 record, an ERA of 3.14 and 201 strikeouts, the first few months of 2009 appeared to confirm that Billingsley had arrived as a viable ace. In his first 14 outings in 2009, he posted a 9-3 record and a 2.72, placing him among the top pitchers in the league. Then things fell apart. Billingsley finished the season by losing eight of his final 11 decisions as his ERA ballooned to 4.03, pushing him out of the Dodgers’ 2009 playoff rotation throughout their run to the NLCS. Furthermore, it left Dodgers fans wondering which Chad to expect every five days. Unfortunately, the two seasons since have done little to clarify things. In 2010, Billingsley rebounded to post an ERA of 3.57, only to follow it up with his worst season yet in 2011, when he had an ERA of 4.21. To make matters worse, Billingsley’s walk rate hit an all-time high (4.0 BB/9) and his strikeout rate reached an all-time low (7.3 K/9). The one consistent aspect of Billingsley’s game (like Kershaw’s) is his ability to stay healthy (still knocking on wood), as he also has been able to start over 30 games for the past four seasons. As I mentioned above, Billingsley will be one of the determining factors for this season’s success. In a division like the NL West, pitching is critical. While Kershaw has shown he can outduel guys like Tim Lincecum and Ian Kennedy, the Dodgers need someone who can compete with the likes of Daniel Hudson and Matt Cain. While they have a guy with the talent and potential to do so, the question of whether he’ll show up still remains. Next Page: The Supporting Cast Ted Lilly While I remain unsure of Billingsley’s success this season, one guy I expect to rebound nicely is Lilly – and the reasons lie in his stats. First of all, Lilly posted a respectable 3.97 ERA last season, but the number that intrigues me the most is his WHIP. In 2011, Lilly allowed just 1.16 walks and hits per inning pitched, tying him for 22nd in MLB. As reference, that placed him just .02 behind guys like David Price, Ricky Romero and Tim Hudson and ahead of guys like C.J. Wilson (by .03), Tim Lincecum (.05), Hiroki Kuroda (.05), Felix Hernandez (.06) and C.C. Sabathia (.07). To take those numbers even further, consider the improvement Lilly showed in the second half of 2011. While he posted an ERA of 4.79 before the All-Star break as batters hit .278 against him, those numbers dropped to 2.94 and .183 respectively after the break. During the same time period, the number of home runs he allowed dropped from 19 to just nine and his strikeout rate increased from 6.5 K/9 to 8.5 K/9. With all this in mind, I expect Lilly’s ERA to come back down to 3.50 or lower this season, and if Billingsley is able to do the same, the Dodgers will have a strong 1-2-3 punch in their rotation. Aaron Harang Here’s where things get interesting. For the first time since 2007, Harang posted an ERA under 4.00 last year (3.64). Unlike Lilly, whose BABIP (batting average on balls in play) indicated that he was unlucky last year, Harang’s indicated the exact opposite. In 2009 and 2010, opponents batted .335 and .342 on balls put into play respectively, but last year that number miraculously dropped to .305. While many will point to his ERA as a sign that he still has something left in the tank, we also have to remember that the 33-year-old pitched in the friendly confines of Petco Park last season. Luckily the team will not rely on Harang to make or break their season. He’ll be an average bottom-of-the-rotation starter whose ERA will hover between 4.10-4.30. Chris Capuano For all of the Dodgers fans nauseous at the prospect of their no. 4 starter posting an ERA of 4.30 this year, brace yourselves for the stats behind Capuano. Coming off a season in which he posted an ERA of 4.55 with the Mets, the 33-year-old Capuano has made only 40 major league starts since 2007. Not much else to say here except that Don Mattingly and Rick Honeycutt are simply hoping that Capuano can be a placeholder in the fifth spot to eat up innings while some of the younger arms get major league ready. While many of you are wondering – how can the Dodgers have an above-average rotation with guys like Harang and Capuano taking the mound every five days? The answer lies in some of the young arms that appear to make the jump this season. Next Page: The replacements waiting for their shot Nathan Eovaldi While some would argue that Rubby De La Rosa is the real difference maker among the youngsters, Eovaldi is the pitcher with the greatest chance of contributing at the big league level soon. As a pleasant surprise for the Dodgers last season, Eovaldi made six starts and posted an ERA of 3.09 as a starter. Eovaldi, 22, was an 11th round draft pick of the Dodgers in 2008 and wasn’t even listed among the team’s top 20 prospects heading into last season. Despite his relative anonymity, Eovaldi allowed more than two earned runs in just one of his six starts last season. He also fanned a surprising 25 batters in 32.0 IP. His ability to impress has continued throughout the spring, as Mattingly has even compared his development and ability to that of Kershaw. Some more good news for Eovaldi is that he enters 2012 among the top 5-10 Dodgers’ prospects on almost every list out there, but the question is whether that will translate into a spot in the opening day rotation. Rubby De La Rosa Like Eovaldi, De La Rosa was another young arm that flashed some serious major league potential in 2011. While Eovaldi was an 11th round pick, De La Rosa, 23, was signed as a free agent in 2007 out of the Dominican Republic. In 13 games (10 starts) last season, De La Rosa posted a 3.71 ERA with a K/9 of 8.9. The bad news with De La Rosa is that he is still recovering from Tommy John surgery and was not expected to be available at all this season, but it appears he is currently ahead of schedule and could be available at some point in 2012, perhaps as soon as after the All-Star Break according to Rubby himself. There you have it – the Dodgers staff for 2012. Other names to watch out for include Zach Lee, the Dodgers no. 1 prospect, Chris Withrow, their first round pick in 2007, and whoever the 2012 mystery pitcher of the year (a la Eovaldi and De La Rosa) may be.

2012: On the Mound

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