3 Reasons the Dodgers Ought to Worry About the Padres

The Dodgers and San Diego Padres enter their final series of 2024 with control of their own destiny. Both teams have a crack at winning the National League West.

For the Padres (90-66), the task is quite a bit more difficult. The Dodgers (93-63) have a three-game advantage with only six regular season games remaining. Still, a series sweep by the Padres would leave the two teams tied atop the division — a nightmare scenario for a Dodgers team that’s been in first place all season.

So, how did the Padres get here? And should the Dodgers be worried?

Here are three reasons to take San Diego seriously:

1. The Padres’ rotation is better than the Dodgers’

San Diego took some time to find the right mix of starters and relievers, with some unexpected setbacks along the way.

Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove were expected to lead the rotation, but both missed time at midseason with injuries. (Darvish also left the team for personal reasons for about six weeks.) Matt Waldron was tied for the team lead in starts when he was optioned to Triple-A in August with a 4.79 ERA; he hasn’t been back since.

Dylan Cease (a spring training acquisition) and Michael King (a reliever most of last season acquired in the Juan Soto trade) have filled in more than capably. Darvish and Musgrove are back and looking like their pre-injury selves. Trade deadline acquisition Martin Perez is 3-0 with a 2.61 ERA in nine starts since he was acquired.

That’s a wealth of riches for October, when a team’s top three starters matter more than their bottom-of-the-rotation depth. But the Dodgers are struggling to even identify a top three.

Jack Flaherty has delivered as advertised, going 6-2 with a 3.40 ERA in nine starts since he was acquired at the trade deadline. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is ostensibly the number-2, though the Dodgers are loathe to use him on fewer than five days’ rest, and his last start saw him allow four runs in three innings Sunday against the Rockies.

Walker Buehler (1-6, 5.63 ERA) and Landon Knack (3-4, 3.39 ERA, 4.71 FIP) are the top candidates to pitch a potential Game 3, and no one else — healthy or otherwise — has made even seven appearances for the Dodgers this season. That Tony Gonsolin is even under consideration for October starts, 13 months removed from Tommy John surgery, speaks volumes to the state of the Dodgers’ rotation.

2. Their lineup is more balanced

The Padres can’t compete with the Dodgers’ 1-2-3 hitters of Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. No other team can, really. But their lineup is enviably deep — a source of concern for the Dodgers at times this season.

Since the All-Star break, none of the Padres’ top eight hitters has a Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) below 113. Jackson Merrill is a strong candidate, if not the strongest, to win the NL Rookie of the Year award. Fernando Tatis Jr. is hitting like he did before a midseason femur injury (.634 slugging percentage in 17 games since returning). Manny Machado recently broke the team record for home runs.

The rest of the group — Jurickson Profar, Luis Arraez, Donovan Solano, Jake Cronenworth — is combining to strike out fewer than any lineup in baseball. That makes them a tough matchup in October, when every team has pitchers capable of using the strikeout to get out of jams.

3. They’re motivated to take their big brother down a peg

It’s easy to overstate the X-factor of motivation, but let’s face it: the Padres have a chip on their shoulder when it comes to beating the Dodgers. They’re 7-3 against the Dodgers this season. The Dodgers’ injuries and the Padres’ in-house talent only helps explain part of the reason why.

The Dodgers are a better team at home (50-28) than on the road (43-35) this season — nearly every team is — so it’s no small matter that this critical series is being played at Dodger Stadium. This is also why securing the top seed in the postseason matters to the Dodgers.

Can the Padres’ motivation overcome the Dodgers’ home-field advantage this week? It’s a fascinating subplot to watch this week, and perhaps again if the teams meet in October.

Photo Credit: David Frerker-USA TODAY Sports

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