Should the Dodgers Deploy a 6-Man Rotation in 2024?

Throughout an MLB season, a team has to pitch at least 1,458 innings — not counting extra-inning games. How a team approaches this number depends on player personnel and in-season variables such as schedule and injuries. To show how important this is, the Dodgers have allocated upwards of $73 million on just starting pitchers for next year alone.

After signing left-handed pitcher James Paxton to a one-year deal, the Dodgers expect to have six starting pitchers on their 26-man roster — Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Walker Buehler, Bobby Miller, Emmett Sheehan, and Paxton. This would certainly allow the Dodgers to use a six-man rotation. However, with some help from the schedule, the front office will likely take a more subtle approach to the rotation.

Why the Dodgers Should Utilize a Six-Man Rotation?

Historically, the Dodgers’ front office likes to be careful — and flexible — when it comes to how often a player pitches. In 2021, the Dodgers recalled and optioned right-handed pitcher Mitch White 10 times over the course of the season. Doing so gave other starters and bullpen pieces extra rest. The next year, MLB instituted a new rule limiting how many times a player could be optioned.

In 2024, the Dodgers rotation is chock-full of pitchers who, for one reason or another, will need rest at some point during the year.

Yamamoto comes over from Japan where they expect their pitchers to pitch only once a week — similar to a college player’s schedule. So, they may not want to ask him to take the ball every fifth day to preserve his arm.

Glasnow pitched a career-high 120 innings last year with the Tampa Bay Rays. He still spent significant time on the injured list after he suffered an oblique strain in the early goings. Additionally, over his career, he has dealt with an elbow injury that he may finally have under control.

Buehler pitched 207.2 innings back in 2021 — the only pitcher on the staff to reach the 200-inning mark. However, coming off his second Tommy John surgery, the Dodgers will handle him with care to get him through the season healthy. Already, rumors circulate that they may place him on the injured list for opening day.

Miller probably has the best chance to pitch more innings than anyone currently on the staff. He’s young and, knocking on every piece of wood, has not suffered a significant arm injury. The question is whether or not the Dodgers will give him that long of a leash, as they are historically very protective of young pitchers.

What can be said about Miller goes double for Sheehan. Also, both of these players have options remaining — three for Miller and two for Sheehan — but more on that later.

Lastly, the Dodgers newly acquired left-hander Paxton also has a significant injury history. He had Tommy John surgery in April 2021 causing him to miss all of 2022. In his contract, he has a performance incentive if he’s healthy for Opening Day, which says all you need to know about him health-wise.

So, should the Dodgers use a six-man rotation? With the above arms, it would behoove the team to give their players as much rest as possible. However, they may not officially call it a six-man rotation.

How the Dodgers Will Utilize the “Sixth Man”

For some reason, teams shy away from using the term “six-man rotation.” The Dodgers will likely use a form of a “six-man rotation,” but they will not call it that officially.

Let’s take a look at the start of April for the Dodgers in 2024. Those days off will act as a sixth man in principle for the team.

Dodgers’ manager Dave Roberts could start Yamamoto on April 1 against the Giants, and then again six days later against the Cubs. Between those two starts, he could use only four other starters and still give Yamamoto five full days of rest. This gives the illusion of a five-man rotation, but in practice, it’s more akin to a six-man rotation.

Then, during stretches when the team plays more than two series in a row, the front office has a couple of choices. This is where the options mentioned above come into play.

The front office could option one of Miller or Sheehan and recall another starting pitcher like Gavin Stone. This gives one of their young arms a break by missing their turn in the rotation and still pushes everyone back by one day.

They could also make timely use of the injured list. This gives the pitcher at least 15 days to recover while someone else takes their spot.

In short, they likely use some modified five-man rotation next year. The most important thing for this team is to have everyone healthy and refreshed come October. Whatever approach they take — and whatever they want to call it — will be in service of getting ready for a World Series run.

Photo Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports

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